Russia's bombardment of cities across Ukraine is continuing. Intelligence suggests another offensive is coming.
At least seven people have died in the western city of Lviv after a number of missiles hit the city. That area has largely escaped attack until now.
International analyst from The Democracy Project, Geoffrey Miller, joined First Light's Rachel Smalley on Tuesday morning to discuss the evolving situation in Ukraine and where Russia is focusing its intentions now.
"Today is day 55 of the war and Kyiv really won the first phase of the war," Miller told Smalley.
"Ukraine really won the first phase of the war, I think we could say, by retaking Kyiv. They withstood all that bombardment and that pressure on the capital.
"But Russia has spent the last couple of weeks regrouping and is now about to mount its assault on the Donbas region."
Miller says he thinks the signs are "ominous" with independent think tank 'The Institute for the Study of War' saying that Russia has in fact taken the city of Mariupol of 400,000 people.
He says this is the biggest victory for Russia to date.
"I just think it's the beginning of a much bigger assault on the eastern Donbas region, which really is Russia's strong point."
"They've withdrawn those 70,000 troops that they had around Kyiv to that eastern flank, and they vastly outnumber the Ukrainian forces there and have got much shorter supply lines. So conditions really do favour Russia in that eastern part of Ukraine."
Listen to the full interview between Geoffrey Miller and Rachel Smalley above.
You can also download the full interview on the First Light Podcast and listen on the go. Check it out on the rova app or wherever you get your podcasts.